Bayern can prove to organised and strong for Chelsea in the 2012 Champions League final when the two teams meet in the Allianz Stadium in Munich on Saturday night. Home advantage will be a huge advantage for the Germans; a look at the stats backs up the view.

Whilst my view is that Bayern will ultimately lift the trophy on Saturday, most probably by winning withing the 90 minutes, they could also finish off Chelsea in extra time or even if the match emulates Bayerns Semi final against Real Madrid and goes to penalties. English teams have one only one of the last eight European finals they have contested, and Chelsea have played thier own part in that Statistic in recent years. Expect some celebration from the Chelsea fans though as I do expect them to get on the score sheet at some time.

Relative European Form

Let’s first look at the last eighteen games, (9 each) the two sides have played in this competition. I’m specifically looking for draws to negate the chance of this game frustratingly going beyond the final whistle. Bayern Munich have not recorded a single draw in their last 9 games, winning seven, losing twice; whilst Chelsea have had two stalemates in the same 9 matches. Of course, the 2-2 draw at Camp Nou that saw them through to this final, and then we go all the way back to November last year when Genk held the blue to a 1-1 score line in Belgium. What is immediately noticeable is that Chelsea have scored in every game including the two defeats, and in fact, that scoring run can be extended back t the last 13 Champion League matches they have played. On this basis alone, the first bet I will make on the game is both sides to score. 1.9 on Betfair seems fairly generous.

Home Advantage for Bayern a Strong Element

Normally when it comes down to knockout competition, or tournament competition, one would not look too deeply into home and away form, but of course on this occasion Bayern Munich, whilst not playing in front of an exclusively partisan home crowd, will be in their home stadium and familiar surroundings. If we now look at the relative home and away stats for the Champion League contests we see a very different picture. A picture many Chelsea fans may want to avert their eyes from. Bayern have won all of their last nine home matches, conceding just 4 goals in three matches, scoring 21 and that run can be extended to 14 wins in 16. The two defeats notable came against the same Inter Milan side. Chelsea on the other had have won only twice in the same 9 away match run, and whilst the win against Benfica may deserve some kudos, a 0-1 revers against Copenhagen doesn’t rate top class. All of a sudden if any confidence of a Chelsea win is in evidence it is dissipated, although again, they have scored in the last eight away fixtures including the two draws and three defeats. Paddy Power and SkyBet go 5/6 the home win (90 mins), it’s is another option.

A Quiet First Half

Given that I think both sides will score and Bayern will run out the winners, there are a host of other considerations to make. One might think that taking EVENS for Over 2.5 goals would be pertinent. The one reservation I have on this is that I think the first half will be very tight, as Bayern patiently weight up their options and work Chelsea out. In fact, it could even be Chelsea that put the ball in the back of the net first. In my never ending quest for as many stats as I can find, I have unearthed something to back up the thought that the first half will be quite on the goals front. Bayern Munich have played at home against English teams on eight occasions since 2001, and in five of the eight games, there has been no more than a single first half goal, Chelsea have played on German soil six times since 1999, and ALL SIX games have had less than 2 first half strikes. Furthermore, take a look at Chelsea’s last 30 away matches in all competitions and we find that no fewer than 24 games have contained 0 or 1 goals in the first halves. UNDER 1.5 First Half goals can be backed at 1.46, or perhaps the more speculative may want to choose a half time correct score between, 0-0 (2/1 BWin), 1-0 (29/10 Betvictor) or even 0-1 (13/2 Coral). I have to say, the Coral price of 13/2 Chelsea 1-0 at half time is a temptation in what could become quite a portfolio of bets for the match.

Goalscorers

Goals need Goal Scorers. Who is most likely to net on the night? Mario Gomez (Bayern Munich) is the obvious choice, but 9/2 for first Goalscorer doesn’t get the investment juices flowing, Paddy Power go 13/10 on the anytime market for him however, and that is far more attractive. And for Chelsea do we need look further than Drogba? 9/1 generally to score first is decent, whilst 3/1 for anytime is an option. 4 times a first goalscorer for Chelsea in Europe this season, the odds are good.

Turnaround

If, dear reader, you have patiently followed me this far, you will have picked up a certain amount of contradiction in the highlighted bets thus far. If i were to follow my track thus far, and things were to go to my predictions, the halfway point will be reached in Germany with Chelsea 1-0 to the good with a Drogba goal the difference between the two sides. But you said you were confident of a Bayern win early on Marc? That’s right, and indeed I still do! What we have in Bayern Munich is a side that just works away at an end game. In the second leg against Real Madrid in Spain we saw Real go ahead with two early goals from Ronaldo. The key here is to simply watch Bayerns reaction to looking like going out of the competition at this point. One would expect a degree of urgency, some searching, hopeful long balls forward, passing and rushing; but Bayern showed none of it. They got hold of the ball, kept it, slowed the match down and took stock of the situation. Carefully and methodically they regrouped and understood the task in hand. In all honesty, I for one was surprised at how quickly the approach paid off, Robben getting a goal back on 27 minutes to level the match on aggregate, eventually enough to take them through extra time and to the penalty shoot out. At no point did Bayern look rushed or harried into decisions, organised and machine-like in defence and not overly committal up front, they knew that preventing Real scoring another was more important than scoring another themselves. It was that measured, organised and typically German engineered approach that saw them through. What this is all leading up to, is that IF Chelsea go in at Half time in front, i feel there is every chance that Bayern can turn the game round in the second half. Suddenly 28/1 for Chelsea/Bayern on the HT/FT market looks worth a speculative interest.

Final Score

It could be anything. previous meetings between the sides are limited, the last twice, the home sides have won, Bayern 3-2 here at the Allianz in 2005, whilst the earlier reverse fixture went to Chelsea 4-2. Goals could be on the agenda once again.  Forget 1-0 Bayern Munich, They have played 30 games at home since recording that scoreline. OVER 1.5 Goals for the match is 1.36, for it is buying money and will be my main bet. Just 3 of the 30 Bayern home games have ended with a single goal or less. Finally, I’m going all out by predicting the full time score as well. I’ve narrowed down the options to, 2-1 (8/1 Betvictor), 3-1 (14/1 generally), 3-2 (28/1 generally), and perhaps, 2-2 (20/1 Betvictor) just in case. It would be mad to cover all four given the other bets I have now on the game, so I am going for the 3-1 and just in case the 20/1 for the 2-2 is big.

I don’t recommend a mirror of all my bets, but please feel free to pick and choose as you see fit. With full cover, one of the larger odds will have to land to show profit. Enjoy the game, and only bet what you can afford.

Champions League Final Bets: 9pts total

Both teams to score @ 1.9 Betfair

Bayern Munich win (90 mins)  @ 5/6

Under 1.5 First Half Goals @ 1.46

Over 1.5 Goals (90 mins) @ 1.36

Half Time Score 0-1 @ 13/2

Drogba FGS @ 9/1

HT/FT Chelsea/Bayern @ 28/1

Correct Score 3-1 @ 14/1 & 2-2 @ 20/1

All eyes and expectation falls onto the shoulders of Montjeu’s son CAMELOT to write a fitting tribute to the classic producing sire who died just a few weeks ago. Trained at Ballydoyle by Aiden O’Brien he is a short priced favourite to add to his Racing Post Trophy win at Doncaster last season. Many would suggest that through his breeding perhaps further might be better for him. Montjeu is more likely to produce winners over 1m4f than the Guineas 1m trip. O’Brien is double handed coming into the race with POWER his other representative. Power is partnered by Ryan Moore today and has had a fair amount of racecourse time already with six outings. Winning four of those, the two defeats came only by a neck when getting caught close home by La Collina in the 6f Phoenix stakes at the Curragh, and in the Dewhurst when he couldn’t quite get to Parish Hall who had sprung to the front here. Winner of the Goffs National Stakes in Ireland and the Coventry at Royal Ascot previously, he can play just as big a part in this first classic of the season.

John Oxx rarely comes to the UK for a runner without purpose and BORN TO SEA receives utmost respect and consideration as the very biggest danger to my selection today. A close relative of Sea The Stars, he easily won a listed event on debut and then when finishing second in a group 3 race at Leopardstown, he was found later to have been lame. Not a bad run in that case! He could be something very special but remains a bit of an unknown quantity to be backing.

We shold not ignore the fact that there is even a chance the prize could be taken back to France by Jean Claude Rouget’s ABTAAL. He made a mockery of French Fifteen when sluicing up at Saint Cloud and alhough the form was reversed at the beginning of this month at Maison Laffite, (claims of a mid race stumble are justified), he will surely come on for the run and steps up to a stiff mile today. Another to consider.

On Sunday O’Brien will be holding all, if not most of the Aces with the girls 1000 Guineas when MAYBE looks to continue her two year old form and bring classic winning three year old form to the table. She has beaten La Collina twice last season in winning five events with relative ease and improvement at each stage. She is a daughter of Gallileo and will be suited by the step up in trip, her last four wins have come over seven furlongs, and one thing she will not mind, is whatever state the ground comes up in. She has form across all conditions and was very impressive on her final outing winning the Moyglare Stud Stakes at the Curragh. LYRIC OF LIGHT and DISCOURSE represent Godolphins interest in the race. The former is unbeaten in three and did win twice at the trip at two, whilst the latter was more than impressive in winning the Sweet Solera Stakes.

Both races are intensely interesting and I for now can not wait to see hat happens. My money is on the O’Brien double, but I think we may have to wait for the Derby for Camelot, with POWER taking the 2000 and MAYBE the 1000

There is a strange feel about the 2012 FA Cup Final. SO many breaks from tradition. For a start the game is not the season closer for the English Football season. Traditionally it has been played after all the leagues have finished their fixture lists, but this year the premier League is far from finished, let alone decided. Both Manchester Clubs who fight out for the Premier League title are not involved as Liverpool compete for a second trophy of the season and Chelsea hope top make it the first of a brace as they face Bayern Munich in the Champions League final. Kick off time has been switched, no longer do we have the build up to the traditional 3pm kick-off. Today we have to 5.15pm

So to the match and what we can expect. Chelsea are favourites to lift a Trophy with blue ribbons adorned. This despite losing to Liverpool on the last four occasions the sides have met. Incredibly they have yet to play both games for the Premier League season. Liverpool won the first at Stamford Bridge back in November with a 87th minute winner from Glen Johnson. That was the first of two victories for Kenny Dalgleish’s side at Stamford Bridge this season as Chelsea faced the same fate in going out of the League Cup to a 2-0 reverse at home. The fact that the London side edge the betting has to be down to the relative current form of the two sides rather than previous results this season. Liverpool have lost twice from their last three games, both at home, against West Brom and most latterly when Fulham visited Anfied. Although to be fair the Reds had many changes to the squad with this game in mind.

Chelsea on the other hand, until the midweek slip up when Newcastle came and raided the Bridge with a 0-2 victory, thanks to some wonder goals from Cisse, had gone some 11 games without defeat including the amazing performance at Camp Nou as they came from 0-2 down with only ten men to draw with Barcelona and book a Champions League final place against Bayern Munich in the Allianz Stadium.

For this game though I see the full ninety minute being used to share honours and extra time required to find an eventual winner. I am unable to confidently predict either side to lift the trophy and will be simply be playing the 90 minute draw at odds of just over 9/4. I shall also take the obvious and most frequent football scoreline of 1-1 in the correct score market.

I am of the opinion it will be a classic cup final though and one to be savoured despite the funny kick off time and the fact that the winning side will be back in training on Monday morning for the remainder of the Premier League season when they meet again at Anfield in a  couple of weeks.

In previewing this game, running through the current position of Barca being a goal down and preferably for them not conceding a goal in this second leg, added to recent meetings between the two sides, I came to the conclusion that this is very, indeed MOST likely to be a low scoring affair in Spain. I will approach the game from two financial fronts. One as a backer looking at what seems to be a very generous Asian Handicap, and from a trading point of view in the goals markets.

A bit of background to my thinking before outlining my financial interest in the game. In the last eight games at the Nou Camp, Barcelona have manged to keep but two clean sheets for all their possession. Some of those goals have come from teams one would consider far less threat that what Chelsea’s front line have to offer, and certainly with the exception of Real Madrid’s attacking options, nothing like Drogba. On that basis I have consider the chance of a Chelsea goal a very likely one. Chelsea seem to be one of the very few teams who can contain, Iniesta, Xavi and Messi, and seem to have learned how to sit back against Pep’s team and hit on the counter. In the main this tactic from anyone else has seen them suffer a glut of goals, not so with Chelsea, they are able to keep it tight at the back and offer little opportunity. The worst thing that could possibly happen would be for Chelsea to actually open the scoring early on, at this point Barca would have nothing to lose and throw caution to the wind, and Chelsea would find themselves under serious pressure for the remainder of the game, so my prediction is that the first half will be a very cagey affair and probably goalless. Also consider that Chelsea are unbeaten in three visits to Barcelona, they are also win-less, recording 0-0, 2-2 and 1-1 draws in those games. So…..

Firstly backing. Paddy Power are going +1.5, +2 (+1.75)at 21/10. Meaning that even if Barca win by just a single goal tonight we collect fully on the bet. If Chelsea lose by two clear goals we lose half stake, and Barca would have to win by a clear three goals for me to lose fully. At odds of 21/10, it is a bet I am more than willing to buy. This was the first bet I placed on the game, looking around the markets, i then notice SkyBet going +2 at Evens. With this handicap, a 2 goals loss for Chelsea would result in a push, and again at the price, it looks a handsome opportunity.

With the view that this will be a low scoring game, and trusting that Barca don’t come out and do a demolition job against Chelsea after they did the same to Arsenal last season going into the second leg 1-2 down, I will be looking to trade both the Under 1.5 and 2.5 goal markets. Under 1.5 is available on Betfair at 5.5 as I write, should the first 45 minutes go goalless, as I am predicting, this price will be more like 2 by half time,and a huge trade could be accomplished. Whilst Under 2.5 can be gotten for 2.65 and again may even turn into a bet depending on how the game goes.

I approach the game with a huge amount of optimism and confidence. I just hope that Barca remain shell shocked from not only losing the first leg last week after they had good chances to be in front but also from losing the Primera Liga title to Real Madrid at the weekend in this very stadium. They will be coming into the game a very hurt animal and could fight back as such, or indeed remain windless. I don’t think Chelsea will win the game however, my prediction would be for a 1-1 draw with both goals coming in the second period of play, thus giving me the opportunity to trade out of both goals markets and collect on both Asian bets.

One way or another, it’s a fascinating contest and one any football fan can be nothing but looking forward to.

We have watched our favourites run all winter and enjoyed a fabulous Cheltenham Festival, now it’s off to Aintree to the most popular race of the year, over the testing (although not as testing, fence wise, as it has been over the years) Grand National fences and course. I run through my shortlist, and come up with a few for consideration. For the full Grand National card,

I have for years used trends as opposed to form as the approach to the Grand National. It has served me well, and the full set of trends even outlined the 2010 winner Mon Mome at 1001/, although, I left it out as a French Bred!!!!! I use the same approach for 2012 which culminates in a four runner shortlist and my bets for the Grand National 2012

STAMINA:

I like the horse that is running for me to have stamina. Of course, it is essential the selection has it in abundance as they take on the four and a half miles. There are few opportunities to run the trip, so I look for runners that have won at least once over fences at 3 miles or beyond. This does little to shortlist in all honesty, it removes just four runners and our field is down to 36.

NATIONAL FENCES:

Not everyone will have this as a rule in shortlisting runners, but I personally like to have my runners experienced over the fences on the National Course at Aintree. There are chases that take place at the track that do not encompass these, so check carefully, as Aintree form doesn’t necessarily mean a run has been had on this course. Again, this filter isnt for everyone, but coupled with the above we are down to just 15 contenders.

AGE AND NUMBER OF RUNS:

Again, these are subjective and don’t narrow the field by much, but 10 previous chase runs is a minimum requirement, as is for the runner to be between the ages of 8 and 12. This narrows the field, but just a couple more and we are down to 13.

WEIGHT:

This is a big one, so many people claim that the winner will never come from a runner carrying a weight of 11 stones or more. Whilst it is true to say that only a handful of runners have managed in in the last 30 years or so, including Red Rum twice (11-08 & 12-00), and Don’t Push It (11-05), the quality of the field now is becoming better and better and the weights are tighter and tighter than they used to be. I think to rule out any runner above 11-00 is now amiss. I am happy to give a further 5lbs and look for runners with 11-05 and below as the marker. It is still a very tough ask to do so off any higher. By doing this, The field is now clipped to just 11. This is also the point at which 2011 Grand National winner Ballabriggs falls from the list.

CURRENT FORM AND CAREER FALLS

It seems essential to me that my selection has made at least a couple of appearences in the current season and in doing so, not have fallen. In addition, a sure footed runner is key and so I also look to ensure there are no more than a couple of falls in the entire history of my selection’s career. Applying this rule, the 2012 Grand National field is now narrowed to just seven runners.

WEST END ROCKER – KILLYGLEN – THE MIDNIGHT CLUB – RARE BOB – ALWAYS WAINING – VIC VENTURI – SWING BILL.

I am looking now at what conditions these runner prefer. We are only a week or so out from the race and can fairly confidently predict that the ground will be no slower than Good to Soft at worst. Given that this is the case, The Midnight Club, Rare Bob and the final 12yo left in my shortlist, Vic Venturi, drop out. The latter pair are both trained by Dessie Hughes. Vic Venturi was a full trends selection last year but got brought down, just as he did in 2010. It will be interesting to see what he could do if staying upright, but I do think that perhaps his chance has now gone. So I am  now down to just four runners running for me

WEST END ROCKER  16/1 @ Boylesports

KILLYGLEN 18/1 SkyBet

ALWAYS WAINING 40/1 SkyBet

SWING BILL 66/1 SkyBet

The statistics for the four runners are lifted directly from the fabulous GRAND-NATIONAL-GUIDE

Good luck, whichever way you bet for the Aintree Grand National 2012.

The draw for the William Hill Lincoln is always an interesting factor and the preceding Spring Mile can often give a pointer as to where, if at all, the draw bias might be. These days, the bias is a far less reliable aid in finding winners, even on the flat straight tracks. In recent years we have seen advantages move from one side of a course to another in these straight races. Overall with 14 years of data I have to hand, high just about edge this race but low have ha the best in recent years. I generally use a tactic of taking one from each side for my bets in advance of the Spring Mile. The prices on the winning side of that race tend to tighten up as a result.

With such a large field, shortlisting is a must and I use a number of approaches which include considering the general level of the track, improving horses and, as strange as it might sound, runner that have a good record in valuable races. This initial work gives me a far smaller field to work from and confidence that I have the winner within my grasp. My shortlist for the 2012 Lincoln is as follows.

ETON FOREVER – FURY – COCOZZA – START RIGHT – MAN OF ACTION – FIELD OF DREAM – PINTURA

ETON FOREVER:

This Oratorio Gelding never really reached potential as a 3yo under Michael Jarvis and it wasn’t until Roger Varian took over the yard and this one reached the age of four that his improvement appeared. Beginning with winning the Spring Mile at this meeting on his seasonal debut, that result alone is a good indication of his ability to run well fresh. That said, the majority of this field will be doing that at this stage of the year. There may have been a touch of disappointment at the remainder of the season as he seemed to move only about 3lbs forward from the Spring Mile win. %th in the RoyalHunt Cup at Royal Ascot, he finished the season a runner up to MAN OF ACTION once again here at Doncaster  although he was giving the winner 8lbs on the day. The difference in weight will be reduced to just 2lb this time.

FURY:

A very promising two year old winning both starts at that age at Newbury and Newmarket. 5th in the 2000 Guineas is not a result to be sniffed at on his reappearance as a three year old, although in all fairness he was well beaten, not only by the ridiculously talented Frankel, but by those immediately behind the winner too! There was small improvement when going to Sandown next time out, failing by only a head when touched off on the line by Tazahum in the Heron Stakes. That winner ha done little since to hold that form up, although in third on the day, Neebras did go on to win a listed event at Glorious Goodwood.

COCOZZA:

This will be a British debut race for Cocozza, running now for Marco Botti since moving from John Oxx in Ireland. He will also be dropping back in trip for this event having run over 10f the last twice. He didn’t manage a win as a three year old which has to be a slight worry despite his position on my shortlist. Botti is one of my favourite trainers for getting something out of a horse and I do have a preference for four year olds for this race. There are also concerns that this ground could be on the quick side for him.

START RIGHT:

The first of two Godolphin runners on my shortlist both trained by Saeed Bin Suroor. Running in Dubai over the winter there will have been some disappointment that he couldn’t pick up a win, but he looks a good candidate for this event after making some improvement over there. He has been freshened up since his last outing there and arrived back in England last Sunday. This will be the first Time Godolphin have been represented in this race and both Start Right and MAN OF ACTION hold chances.

MAN OF ACTION:

The second of the pair of Godolphin entries and this one may have the advantage being a previous course and distance winner. Like START RIGHT the ground will be all the better for being good or faster according to Simon Crisford, Godolphins racing manager. Man of Action has also wintered in Dubai and also couldn’t get a win under his belt out there. I think it is significant that both are back to take on this challenge for the stable.

FIELD OF DREAM:

A runner from Jamie Osbourne and an interesting one from the lower end of the draw which saw the winners of both the Spring Mile and Lincoln last season. Whilst the middle of the track is expected to be the place to be this year, the pace looks to be on the lower side for me. He went through the 2011 season without a win, although it is to be noted that he was mainly running in group company, he does have a straight mile win at Newmarket which is a positive. He might not have just enough to win this, but I think a place a a good price is not out of the question.

SELECTIONS:

I think the winner of the race will come from these 6, and I am toying with the idea of twisting them up in Forecast bets. For the meantime though I want to find the winner and I will be backing a pair as I mentioned at the start. From the title, it is pretty obvious my fancy is for START RIGHT. He has finished behind ETON FOREVER, whilst his stable mate, Man of Action has beaten that rival before. I am drawn to this pair and both will receive a straight win bet

Enjoy again Mick Kinane on Montjeu winning the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes on the bridle at Royal Ascot, and then remember what this super stallion has produced in the second video

A week of expectation as four champions returned to defend their crowns. As it was, just two completed the feat and both, in doing so, became quadruple champions in their division. Quevega returned champion of the girls in the OLBG Mares Hurdle, whilst her nearest rival, Voler De Vadette, avoided her and took on the boys in the World Hurdle and very nearly denied the other four timer on Thursday as Big Bucks overcame the best staying hurdlers to lift the title for an unprecedented fourth time; completing 16 consecutive victories over hurdles and remaining unbeaten in the code.

Hurricane Fly and Sizing Europe were unable to defend theirs but went down fighting to new worthy champions. Rock on Ruby, a rare highlight for Paul Nichols on a meager weak by his standards and Finians Rainbow, just another number in the Henderson 2012 bandwagon that saw him eclipse the all time winning most trainer at the Festival, although rather more than that to Seven Barrows Stable-lad Conor Murphy who picked up a cool £1.2m from an accumulator placed last year, and cooler still the fact he turned up to muck out on Friday morning! Henderson maintains he knew nothing of the bet until after it was landed and the most remarkable aspect possibly the fact that the Neptune was not decided as the destination of Simonsig until 48 hours before the race. Had that one gone in the Supreme Novices the bet would have been sunk.

The Gold Cup would have gone down as possibly the weakest class wise for many a year had Tony McCoy not put in yet another amazing ride on Synchronised on his 17th ride in the great race. Kauto Star was applauded as he pulled up early on, Sam Whaley Cohen was seen looking around for his rival as he disappeared behind, he needn’t have  bothered, his main problem was in front in the form of the Giant Bolster who was runner up for a yard that has just 12 horses. The Gold Cup was certainly a huge highlight for David Bridgwater and Tom Scudamore whom I’m sure can hardly believe they beat both the great Kauto and defending champion Long Run into third place.

CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL TUESDAY REVIEW:

It seems a lifetime ago already that Sprinter Sacre silenced the doubters who could not get over him blowing up in the previous years Supreme Novice Hurdle, as he came up the hill effortlessly to win the Arkle. If a banker was landed on the week in banker style it was this. Banker number two, Hurricane Fly, would not be bothered by those thought most likely to take him on. Neither Binocular nor Zarkandar could beat him on the day, but Overturn and Rock on Ruby did. The latter looking most impressive leading from the front. Quite what Paul Nichols runner could do given a clear round of jumping is anyone’s guess. Tradegy was to befall the Cross Country event in the middle of the course. From my vantage point in the middle it was obvious almost immediately that favourite Scotsirish was in trouble as he came down early in the race. I was not to learn of the demise of the great Garde Champetre in the same race until later in the afternoon, although fitting it might seem that it should happen at the venue of his most exuberant performances. Quevega reined Supreme in the OLBG Mares Hurdle, the question on everyone’s lips, “Can she return for a fifth tilt?” and finally, quite possibly the most improved horse of the season romps home in the final race of the opening day. Hunt Ball just gets better and better. Could it get any better than day one?

CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL WEDNESDAY REVIEW:

From a personal point of view, oh yes it could. Teaforthree had long been outlined as my bet of the festival and Rebecca Curtis was rewarded with a fine piece of brave front running over the monster 4 miles of the Amateurs National Hunt Chase. To achieve a win in this race from the front is a remarkable achievement. Then came the Neptune. Simonsig was always going to be a hard one to beat regardless of this or the Supreme being the target. He didn’t let his followers down, running away with the Neptune in fantastic style to also elevate Nicky Henderson to the top of the Festival winning trainers table beyond Fulke Walwyn; an enormous achievement. Well done Nicky! Grands Crus was the next banker buster, the RSA was chosen in preference to a tilt to the Gold Cup. (I wonder what they think now!) It didn’t work out, Bobs Worth scored for Henderson again and First Lieutenant and Call the Police even kept him out of the frame. It was to get better for the bookmakers as another odds on shot, Sizing Europe was unable to retain his Champion Chase crown, Barry Geraghty, in fine form, steering young Finian’s Rainbow to a classic win. It was then time for a monumental gamble. Donald McCain had already one winner in the book with Supreme Novice champion, Cinders and Ashes, but his Son of Flicka had been available at 66/1 on Wednesday morning, that soon disappeared and so did most prices beneath it once Pricewise had tipped it up too. The 16/1 winner had contracted an incredible 50 points in the run up to the race and didn’t let down his investors. Henderson struck again in the next with 40/1 shot Une Artiste providing a  thrilling win for young Jeremiah McGrath and Willie Mullins took the Bumper for Ireland once again, although with what many would have considered his second string.

CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL THURSDAY REVIEW:

The bookies were claiming to have been still licking their wounds from the previous two days when arriving to set up stall for day three. Sir Des Champs winning the opening Jewson would not have helped the healing process despite favourite Peddlers Cross finishing out of the frame. It was a tonic for Willie Mullins too, who, the bumper apart, had not been having a great festival until now. Make no mistake, he has a VERY good horse there! Albertas Run would be attempting a third consecutive Ryanair Chase and was allowed to go off a 10/1 shot for the second year running. For a long way it looked as if the punters had underestimated him once again and perhaps they did, but Nicky Henderson was to win once again. Stable staff running up the shute in wild celebration following Riverside Theatre looked over the top, until we understood one of them had just bagged £1.2m from the most speculative of ante post accumulators. Another favourite landed. The only concern regarding Big Bucks was his fitness. The Ditcheat team had been running below par, Rocky on Ruby excepted, and Ruby Walsh did have an air of concern about his person taking Bucks out onto the course. He also had the same level of relief about him as he crossed the line in front for the fourth time in this race aboard the beast. In behind was quite possibly THE ride of the Festival. Andrew Lynch, aboard Voler De Vadette,  has spotted Ruby coming out to the middle of the course to meet and had identified that only way to beat Big Bucks  was to be away from him, switching in behind to the standside rail. She began to make ground and breathing went on hold. Was this to be the moment the biggest “banker” of the week was to be toppled? Ruby Walsh took the Champ across to take her on, this horse loves a battle, and as tactics go, this was a wonderful finish. Just back into punting mode for a second, VDV is a 10/1 shot for the race next year and that has to be value, 10yos very very rarely win the championship races and that is the task facing Bucks should he return in 2013. Two more favourites going in the final two races would have hurt the bookies satchels perhaps, but not as much as Bucks.

CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL FRIDAY REVIEW:

20 races gone and 9 favourites landed. The most in many a year gone by. The bookies were looking for some respite, and they got it in the first two races with 33/1 and 20/1 shots landing the first blows of the day. Short priced Boston Bob was chinned in the Albert Bartlett too, the satchels were starting to refill once again. Onto the Blue Riband event. The Gold Cup. Long Run was looking to retain his crown from Kauto Star who had beaten him twice already this season. In the event it was not to be. Kauto Star just didnt go an inch and Ruby Walsh pulled him up early on, greeted by spontaneus applause of respect from an adoring crowd who, regardless of who they might have bet on, would have loved to have seen him win a third Gold Cup in six years and go down in history as one of the greatest. Sam Whaley-Cohen could be seen looking around for his rival soon after, seeming confused that he couldn’t spot him. It looked set up for a double for him with no Kauto Star left in the field and the Bookies must have been dreading the favourite winning the big one, although Kauto being out would have offset a good deal of the liabilities. It turned out that Tony McCoy who had taken until the previous race to ride his first winner of the Festival should rock up with another masterful ride upon the heavily backed Synchronised, to shove him to the line to deny 50/1 shot The Giant Bolster and land the win. Not a classic Gold Cup by any standard but a worthy winner providing JP McManus with his first Gold Cup success too. The big prices continues to roll in for the rest of the afternoon, including a wonderfully confident ride for Paul Carberry and another winner fittingly for Nicky Henderson in the race named after his father, as Bellvano, jumping the fourth last in twelfth position cruised through the pack to win going away at the finish. It was another great ride that brought the curtain down on a festival that had provided in equal measure, delight, disaster, inspired rides and inspired betting, not to mention a whole host of winning favourites and gambled horses to give the old enemy a bashing.

There may be no tomorrow, but I’m already looking forward to next year

Never the easiest of races to work out, this year looks to be a little different in that I have it narrowed down to only three that I think can win the race rather than the usual dozen I end up with. Only two training yard are represented in the trio with both Alan Kings Barbury Castle inmates along with Paul Nichols chance.

GRUMETI and PEARL SWAN have battled it out up this hill previously in the trial race for this back in January. Whilst Pearl Swan was very impressive being held up by Ruby Walsh coming to challenge Grumeti late on and win a photo finish by a neck, he was ultimately disqualified for bumping on the run in. Here is my conundrum between the pair. Grumeti has since been on the track again, winning comfortably at Kempton but I have that run rated no higher than his Cheltenham effort when at least some improvement would have been expected. Pearl Swan has not run since, therefore if he were to show improvement on the previous run today would that take him beyond his rival. Also factor in the week Nichols has had and confidence is once again tempered, without that factor Pearl Swan looks to have a big chance. BABY MIX was well beaten by the pair at Cheltenham and I can’t quite understand why he should be favourite on the exchanges this morning. Yes he has subsequently won by going to Kempton and having SADLERS RISK behind, but like Grumeti, I dont have that run as any better than his Cheltenham 6th, if anything, it is a pound or two worse! You might spot Une Artiste in fouirth in that Kempon race and of course he has since come to Cheltenham to score at huge odds on Wednesday, however again, I dont have it rated as very high in the ratings.

One I have no doubt about is BALDER SUCCES (one s!). Alan Kings “other” entry in the race and by the looks of jockeys bookings, second string. That worries me none. He has shown improved performances on each of his three runs and has yet to taste defeat. He doesnt have the course form as a couple of the aforementioned but his debut came on the undulating track and uphill finish of Plumpton, whilst two subsequent wins have come at Ascot. I have Pearl Swan maybe 2lbs better, but with whatever is going on at Ditcheat in the back of my mind, think that Balder Succes has much more to give today.

SELECTION: BALDER SUCCES 1pt win 8/1 generally 

Today, I have struck my bets, or at least begun to get bits matched and placed orders for my Gold Cup bets and the centre all around one runner. I backed my selection for a single pound just a few hours after last seasons race in which I completly discounted Long Run on nothing more than his age. I was reliably informed, as it turned out, that Imperial Commander could not and would not follow up his 2010 victory, and in the abscence of confidence for anything else in the field, picked out one who ran, what to me, looked a promising race. Hence the bet struck the very next morning. I’ll get to the selection i the following thoughts.

So, we have to start with LONG RUN. Defending Champion. Well, that’s a negative to start with. Certainly when he will enter the envelope which houses the likes of Cottage Rake, Arkle, L’Escartgot and most recently, the incredible Best Mate. The one thing he certainly has on his side is age. In winning in 2011, he became the first 6yo to do so since Mill House in 1963, and only the fourth since the war. At 7, he fits into a far more qualified age range to complete the feat and is probably rightly at the head of the market. his win last year was a wonderful sight, but with a pair of 11 year old in Denman and Kauto Star in behind, the form was up for debate at the time. Since then of course he has suffered defeat on two occasions to Kauto Star, defeats which could also be described as comfortable wins for Paul Nichols wonder-horse.

Now, should KAUTO STAR go on and win the 2012 Gold Cup, he would be achieving the nigh impossible and could quite easily be descibed as THE best ever Gold Cup winner. To win the Cup three times, as Best Mate and Cottage Rake did in consecutive seasons is quite amazing, do it without back to back wins over 6 seasons would be ridiculous. I have to say, for that to happen in my lifetime would, to date, be the most incredible event, and certainly one that even now, sat at my desk, prompts a tingle in the tear ducts. To be present on the hill to watch Ruby Walsh ride him back in front of the Grandstand to what would be an incomparable reception would bring a tear of pleasure and incredulous joy to a good percentage of the National Hunt loving attendance. And who is to say he can’t do it. For most of the year, and certainly since last March when Long Run led him up the hill to win in 2011, Long Run has long been the unquestioned favourite to win again, but in two outstanding performances, that even Paul Nichols has struggled to explain through his own tears, in the Betfair Chase and King George VI, Kauto Star has placed himself firmly at the head of the market.

Mentioned herein have been Cottage Rake, Arkle and Best Mate, all of whom can boast incredible records in the Gold Cup, but only once each won the King George. Until last year Desert Orchid was THE King George Horse with four amazing wins over a span of five seasons. Kauto Star eclipsed that in 2011, with a FIFTH title over SIX years, deposing the 2010 Champion Long Run in the process. So as March approaches, do we not have a contest to match that of previous Denman v Kauto build ups. Certainly that looks to be the agenda and what a contest it will be but this is the Gold Cup and isn’t there always the proverbial spanner in the works?

I shall not be as brave as to say MIDNIGHT CHASE is that spanner, for he has a hell of a job on his hands to displace either one of the aforementioned, let alone them both but it would be reminiscent of Imperial Commanders victory in 2010, defeating Denman, with Kauto Star and Ruby Walsh floundering on the floor down the hill. So not impossible.

Midnight Chase is the bet i mentioned earlier, that I had in the abscence of anything better in last years race, and on the day I saw enough to consider that neither Kauto or Denman would make this years race and Long Run would befall the same fate as Imperial Commander in not being able to retain the title. At the time it was a 50/1 shot, and so it stayed until his Argento Chase win on the 3m1f110yd trip of the Cheltenham Chase course at the end of January. He finished as well up the hill as you would want a Gold Cup contender to do, given the extra furlong required in March and for me, it puts him spot on for the race. His price was halved immediately and as I write, has hardened further to 16/1. Here is where some considered sports betting in employed. Whilst I have popped in another win bet for him at 26 following the Argento, consider the following. In my opinion, take Kauto Star and Long Run out of the equation and find any other horse in the line up who can run up to that form. Difficult isn’t it. So a quick look at the market w/o the front two I find a price of over 6/1 available! The place only bet for him is only 9/2 and that in itself, for me, is worth investment. I have taken 5pt bets on both and aim to top up in the coming days and weeks. 6/1 for no other horse to find that level of form on the day is massive and here is why.

I have Midnight Chase running to a mark of 166 in last years race and 167 in the Argento Chase. Looking through previous Gold Cups, in recent years, taking out Long Run, Kauto Star and Denman, to match that mark  I can find only What a Friend last year (170) and Neptune Collonges in 2008 (171). Even going back to previous winners I have War of Attrition at the same 167 winning in 2006, Kicking King on only 165 as winner in 2005, and not to put a downer on Best Mate but respectively figures of 151, 156 and 166 in his three wins spanning 2002-2004. Midnight Chase is therefore capable of winning a Cheltenham Gold Cup.

In the battle against Long Run and Kauto, I don’t have Long Run down as any worse than last year in fact. I have him still running 170 this season to match his Gold Cup 2011 performance, rather it is Kauto who has stepped back up his game in running to a mark in excess of that recorded for his 2009 Gold Cup win. Will the King George and Betfair Chases have taken any toll on the pair in the run up? Only time will tell and for Kauto Star, crucially, this is not Kempton Park!

This piece is now way beyond the length I desired for it to be and i have mentioned only three contenders. What I do next will ruffle some feathers but I will go ahead in any case. Grands Crus? Don’t make me laugh. This is no disrespect to the horse itself, a fine Novice it is, but a novice it remains with just three chases under his belt. I’m sorry but this is certainly a year too early for him and surely the RSA has to be the target where he would hold a outstanding chance. He simply does not hold the experience required for this race, even without the top two in the market.

Syncronised is closely matched with Midnight Chase on his Lexus win, and will be another who will attract good each way support. My fear for this one is the pace of the race at this trip, he is suited to further and I would rather have any each way bets for him struck on the Grand National where he will been seen at his best. Preference at almost twice the price would be for Weird Al, whose Betfair Chase and Charlie Hall runs put him in with claims. Just 2 lengths behind Long Run at Haydock show his ability.

CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP BETTING ADVICE:

A winner from outside of those mentioned, or indeed anything to place outside these is unlikely in my mind, but I may return to the race closer to the event and just run my eye over them. My stall is set for now however and m bets are struck. The battle is Long Run v Kauto, but with their prices at 9/4 and 4/1, better value for me can be had by backing MIDNIGHT CHASE in the w/o market and to place, with a small investment on an Imperial Commander-esque upset.

5pt win MIDNIGHT CHASE w/o Long Run or Kauto @ 7

5pt place MIDNIGHT CHASE @ 5.5

1pt win MIDNIGHT CHASE @ 26