Where are the score draws in the Npower Championship?

August 18, 2011

Here’s something to consider, its called the law of averages, and in this instance i think it is quite significant.

By far the most common result in most leagues is the 1-1 draw, hence it is almost always found as the shortest price correct score bet in the majority of game, should they not be top v bottom etc.

Now, in the Championship thus far, should Palace v Cov stay 0-1, there will have been 31 completed games since the start of the season.

Working on previous years averages,

2008/09 1-1 (69 games) 12.50% 1-0 (59)
2009/10 1-1 (86 games) 15.58% 1-0 (57)
2008/09 1-1 (71 games) 12.86% 1-0 (51)

We might safely assume that at an average of 12% we should have had some 4-5 games finishing with this scoreline. We might also, well I do anyway, think that this inbalance will be redressed over the course of the season.

It might also be worth noting that the 0-1 scoreline is way ahead of any other already this term, 11 times (35% of matches thus far), just thought i would chuck that in as its a strange one in itself.

Now the season is only 35 games old so far, but surely those 1-1′s should be showing up sooner rather than later?

Thoughts anyone.

4 games in the division on Wednesday night, any 1-1′s in here?

Millwall v Peterborough U…
Leicester City v Bristol City
Cardiff City v Brighton & Hov…
Blackpool v Derby County

I think perhaps not!

This weekend in the Championship must surely have one. maybe a pair. backing every game to end all square 1-1 is not a seinsible betting approach, but the longr the 1-1 grough continues, the more tempting putting faith in averages becomes. With 12 matches in the division we would need actually three correct 1-1 predictions to make any sort of tangible profit on the bet. That might be asking a bit too much. Witha  further 12 matches it will take the total games played 47 it would be reasonable to expect to have seen 6 games ending 1-1. Now. If the average balances were redressed this weekend that would pay handsomely.

I shall update before the weekend to advise how my thoughts on the matter have developed as the weekend nears

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