Cheltenham Festival: JCB Triumph Hurdle promises to be a huge Succes

March 16, 2012
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Fatigue is well and truly set in for MOB this week. It is only the adrenelin and anticipation of the final day that actually brings me to wake up. The Triump Hurdle looks likely to set the day up nicely.

Never the easiest of races to work out, this year looks to be a little different in that I have it narrowed down to only three that I think can win the race rather than the usual dozen I end up with. Only two training yard are represented in the trio with both Alan Kings Barbury Castle inmates along with Paul Nichols chance.

GRUMETI and PEARL SWAN have battled it out up this hill previously in the trial race for this back in January. Whilst Pearl Swan was very impressive being held up by Ruby Walsh coming to challenge Grumeti late on and win a photo finish by a neck, he was ultimately disqualified for bumping on the run in. Here is my conundrum between the pair. Grumeti has since been on the track again, winning comfortably at Kempton but I have that run rated no higher than his Cheltenham effort when at least some improvement would have been expected. Pearl Swan has not run since, therefore if he were to show improvement on the previous run today would that take him beyond his rival. Also factor in the week Nichols has had and confidence is once again tempered, without that factor Pearl Swan looks to have a big chance. BABY MIX was well beaten by the pair at Cheltenham and I can’t quite understand why he should be favourite on the exchanges this morning. Yes he has subsequently won by going to Kempton and having SADLERS RISK behind, but like Grumeti, I dont have that run as any better than his Cheltenham 6th, if anything, it is a pound or two worse! You might spot Une Artiste in fouirth in that Kempon race and of course he has since come to Cheltenham to score at huge odds on Wednesday, however again, I dont have it rated as very high in the ratings.

One I have no doubt about is BALDER SUCCES (one s!). Alan Kings “other” entry in the race and by the looks of jockeys bookings, second string. That worries me none. He has shown improved performances on each of his three runs and has yet to taste defeat. He doesnt have the course form as a couple of the aforementioned but his debut came on the undulating track and uphill finish of Plumpton, whilst two subsequent wins have come at Ascot. I have Pearl Swan maybe 2lbs better, but with whatever is going on at Ditcheat in the back of my mind, think that Balder Succes has much more to give today.

SELECTION: BALDER SUCCES 1pt win 8/1 generally 

 

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