Thoughts on the Knavesmire For Thursday 19th –

August 18, 2011
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2.00 Premier Yearling Stakes This one would be nice if it went to the Barrington Hills and Richard Hills partnership with West Leake Diman. Two excellent runs to date at Haydock and Newmarket where not a foot has been put wrong. The win was probably not expected last time out, but leading almost all the way he was game and will improve again for the outing. he does come up against a very strong contender in Richard Hannons CROWN DEPENDANCY who deserves every respect, not only for connections, but a winning 6f debut at Goodwood has been followed up by good performances in group events including a third place finish in the Norfolk Stakes and a fourth place in the molecomb at Glorious Goodwood. that is serious form and it would be folly to dismiss it for speculating another can improve beyond that.

 

2.30 Lowther Stakes This race can go back to Ireland and the Wachamn yard as FIRE LILY looks primed to take the event. A confortable win in the Group 3 Anglesey Stakes at the curragh last time was not unexpected but pleasing all the same as she made her first attempt at today 6f trip. the rating for the race was a tad below what i have her posting for her fourth place finish in the Queen Mary at Ascot over 5f, but that came on good ground, and the cut last time in Ireland may not have been ideal. With conditions to suit today she can put in yet another good performance now she attempts 6f for a second time. Godolphins Gamilati heads the over night market on the exchanges but this can go to any one of the top five in the betting. The price on the selection is just about right.

 

3.05 ADDLESHAW GODDARD STAKES Without doubt the toughest race of the week yet to decipher. in fact, this could even get the honour of toughest race of the month thus far. The shortlist is down to three however, and if anything like yesterdays shortlist of four which had the first three home in, most of the hard work is done, it’s just a matter of finding which one it is Invisible Man, Fareer and Pendragon have all made the cut. So whist, 23 variable for each runner have been analysed to get down to this point, a very close look at form and conditions will now take place. Pendragon look like it could be the first casualty here, the last run at Sandown offers no encouragement, but a quick look at his penultimate outing at Ascot in the Royal hunt Cup means i need to look further. That run was a career best from a mark of 89. he is only 2lbs higher today and is receiving 7lbs from Fareer and a huge 16lbs from Invisible Man. He has not been overly raced this season and although improving with each run, did dip slightly last time, and i can see no obvious reason. part of me wonders if he is going over already. He did seem to flatten out a bit around this time last year. He is the first of the three discounted. Fareer is on a losing run of some eight races now, but these have not all been handicaps and as such. His last win came on this track in a listed Handicap and a far better race than this one today, he made all and encouragingly found more when challenged in that race. A good quality as I have mentioned previously on this thread. However, when running the same race this season on a mark some seven pounds higher at 109, he finished down the field well beaten in eighth and that from where i pick the form up again. Behind Pendragon (Same weights) in the Royal hunt Cup at Ascot, Invisible Man in 3rd (receiving 4lbs that day), last of five home in the summer Mile Stakes at Ascot and then down the field at Goodwood last time out, his mark has dropped back a bit, but still remains three pounds higher than his Hambleton win in May 2010. he may still be in the grip and others can be considered better treated. So I am left with INVISIBLE MAN and am hoping the form stacks up now or it’s back to the drawing board. Well, as already mentioned, 3rd in the Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot he will re oppose a few here. Pendragon was beaten only a nose into fourth on that run and they meet on the same terms today, As mentioned Fareeer was down the field in eighth, but does have a swing of some 8lbs today. Will it be enough? Possibly not! My biggest concern with the remaining pick from the shortlist is the fact that his last win came way back in the Royal Hunt Cup of 2010 when winning off 95. 107 today is some 12 lbs higher. And 2lbs higher than the 105 he carried to third place this season. He is top weight today and I just wonder if he has been held by his mark the last twice he has been seen, although it has to be said, stablemate Secrecy who held him in a conditions stakes at Doncaster is no slouch, although Balducci beating him last time out would have been viewed as disappointing although both Colonial and King Of Dixie who were behind that day have both posted better rated runs since. I nearly talked myself out of it, but conditions to suit and when all is said and done some solid form to go on, top weight for a reason he should run a place at the very least with Frankie, popular as ever on board. Oh, the one thing i did forget is field size, he will be quite at hoe in this big field, Frankie has ridden him six time, and won and placed twice with him. With William Buick riding Emirates Dream here one would have to rpesume, this is the fancied one of the pair, and most likely Frankies choice.. No chance of getting chucked out for lack of reasoning today, but just put down my thoughts as i was thinking them tonight

3.40 Darley Yorkshire Oaks news that Snow Fairy is out is a shame for the feature race of the day, but from a betting perspective opens things up a little. I have the race down as a straight fight between Blue Bunting and Wonder of Wonders from Aiden O’Brien now. Blue Bunting of course beat this rival when winning the Irish oaks, but previously the finishing positions were reversed when they met in the English equivalent at Epsom. I tend to favour WONDER OF WONDERStoday as their is less cut in the ground which looked to go against her strangely last time. Crystal Cappella looks to be held despite having my support last time, Vita Nova holds that one anyway, and of course Banimpire split Blue Bunting and WOW in Ireland. A great renewal of the race, a shame Snow Fairy has come out, but it could have beena procession with her in. WONDER OF WONDERS for another race for Ireland.  

NO bet for the 4.15

4.50 Eventmasters.co.uk Handicap

ITLAAQ is the pick in the final race of day two on the knavesmire as the weekend draws closer. Mick Easterbys charge looked to relish the challenge of this trip when trying it for the first time here last time out and although this looks to be a tougher race than the one he won that day, he will be better for the experience. A further place from 3runs on this course shows he doesn’t mind its vastness and good ground id definitely his preference with all his “results” coming on it. Graham Gibbons on board for the fourth time now, and he scored on him here previously. Double figure odds offer EW options, but you know me………….

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