Football: Champions League Groups A-D Real Madrid can Beat Manchester City in round 1

September 18, 2012

Tuesday 18th September sees the first round of Champions League matches from Group A-D

I took a hugely statistical route the first round of matches last season and caught a bit of a cold in doing so. That strategy is shelved this time round so no blind betting

Champions League GROUP A

Dinamo Zagreb v Porto

Zagreb offered nothing in this competition last season and they once again look like they will be the whipping boys of Group A. They have been doing well domestically but will not have had to face anything like to opposition of Porto up till now. Home advantage may count for something in this game. Porto do not have the strongest away form in this competition as losses to Zenit and more surprisingly APOEL last season with testify. Evens for the Porto win however, are good enough to get involved. Zagreb will probably be happy enough with a point and we should be careful if they come out to play in this manner, but with the group looking to be between just Porto and PSG, the visitor will know that the French side will come to Zagreb looking to outpoint the and have to take the same approach.

 PSG v Dynamo Kyiv

The Paris side would be more than mortified shold they not exit the 90minutes tonight with anything less than three points. With 100million euros spent in the summer, they simply have to qualify for the knock out stages of this competition, let alone what they will need to achieve in Ligue 1. They should be able to dispatch Kyiv without too much trouble although a domestic 9 points from five matches will be concerning the supporters coming into tonight’s game. On that basis, whilst i fully expect PSG to take the win, there are some frailities in the side working as a complte unit in these early weeks and can  I can resist backing them at 1.70

 Champions League Group A Bets: Dynamo Zagreb v PORTO – AWAY WIN @ 2.00

Champions League GROUP B

 Montpellier v Arsenal

Arsene Wenger is bullish about his Arsenal sides performances thus far and the confidence in the camp. No one can doubt they can play a game of football, even if coming up against a side not fit for the Premier League on Saturday to close out a game with six goals in the most competitive league in the world is a feat that has to be respected. The home side may well be the French Champions at present but they look to be in some early turmoil with below par performances against Lorient, Marseille and Reims thus far, three games in which they have failed to pick up a point. Wenger does not make mistakes at this stage of the competition. They ususally start games liek this in quick style an could have the hosts on the back foot very early on. I predict a comfortable away win for the Gunners. How ironic should Oliver Giroud play a part in a good arsenal win against his former club?

Olympiakos v Shalke

Olympiakos have seen 12 players from last seasons squad leave this summer, how that will affect them this year remains to be seen, although predictably they sit on top of the Super League in Greece winning their first three fixtures. They are a tough side at home too, having seen off both Arsenal and Dortmund in the group stage last season. Shalke may be happy to take a point tonight and low scoring game looks to be on the agenda. I think the Greek side will edge this though. 6/4 for the home win is a bet worth buying.

Champions League Group B Bets: Montpellier v Arsenal AWAY WIN @ 5/4 and Olympiakos v Shalke HOME WIN @ 6/4 – PLAY THE DOUBLE AS WELL AT AROUND 9/2

Champions League GROUP C

Dangerously, Group C’s opening two games look fairly straightforward. There will plenty of multiple bets including both these hoe wins tonight. Whether they prove fruitful or not remains to be seen

Malaga v Zenit

I did mention in my opening post about the fact that Malaga have lost a lot of players i the summer and without the money they had last year have been unable to replace fully what has gone. Credit then whee credit is due in that they sit in second spot in La Liga after 4 matches and ten points in the bag. If we are to back Malaga this year then any time before Christmas before suspensions and injuries start taking their toll will be the best time. Zenit are now where Malaga were in hat they are throwing around the Euros like they are going out of fashion. They have been better away from home so far domestically though, so an interesting clash o the cards tonight. I shant be throwing fortunes at this game,and certainly will not pay the double in the group games, but a home win at 5/4 looks a reasonable bet given Malaga’s form in Spain so far

Milan v Anderlecht

This is not so much a question of who will win the match as how many goals Milan will score in doing so!  But beware, they have stumbled through the opening games in Italy up to now and not been scoring. The Belgians have been more solid in their domestic league, but do not have to face up to what Inter have to offer. I’m in a bit of a quandry. 1/2 seems a good price for the home win, but Inter’s form so far worries me a little. I may kick myself if I dont take the bet though as on paper this looks a 1/4 shot if there ever was one

Champions League Group C Bets: HOME WINS for both Malaga and Inter Milan. 2pts Malaga 1 pt Milan

Champions League GROUP D

 Dortmund v Ajax

Dortmund may be the lowest ranked side in Group D, the now names Group of death,and if they want to depose any of the opposing sides to progress beyond the Group stage nothing but a win at home against Ajax will do. We can be fairly sure that both Manchester City and Real Madrid will be getting three points in their corresponding home fixtures against the Dutch. New recruit Reus has already been on the score sheet for the Germans and looks to have been a solid signing. Ajax do have away wins against Dinamo Zagreb and Milan in this competition in the past but look to be up against it in Germany tonight. 1.4 is too short for though, so will leave the game.

Real Madrid v Manchester City

Without doubt the clash of the night. Real Madrid, who are coming in for criticism for a poor start to the season take on the current Premier League Champions. I’m not worried about Madrid’s poor start so much. Jose will have full focus on this competition this season and I believe this is the one the “Special One” wants to win more than anything. Manchester City might be question for the draws against Liverpool and Stoke, but my concern would be with the goals conceded against QPR and Southampton as well, even though they won the matches. Real Madrid are more than capable of creating chances and taking them for that matter, and City’s defence will be put through the mill in this match. It may be a storm they cant hold back. I’m not convinced yet that they will progress through this group and think the first hurdle will find them stumbling. A home win for Madrid to install some confidence at the Bernabeau, I thinkit will be tight. the 1.65 doesn’t do it for me, so am going to play 1-0 at 8.5

Champions League Group D Bets: Real Madrid to win 1-0 @ 8.5

One Response to Football: Champions League Groups A-D Real Madrid can Beat Manchester City in round 1

  1. Marc Owen-Banks on September 18, 2012 at 10:19 pm

    On the night I come out 0.75pts ahead. Not great, but looks like the extra point investment on Malaga paid off and turned the profit. A great night of football, and the appetite is certainly whetted for Wednesday

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