Football: Champions League 2012/13 Groups A-D 2nd Round of Group Stage

October 3, 2012
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Wednesday night Champions League action from groups A-D

Tuesday provided a third consecutive Champions League night profit of 2.61pts on the night to add the the 8.19 already gained from week 1. The Bank stands at 10.80pts to the good going into Wednesdays games from Groups A to D

 

Champions League GROUP A

Dynamo Kiev v Dinamo Zagreb

Both of these sides lost their opening games and will need to be picking up points here if wanting to progress further from the group. Dynamo Kiev may well be the home side here but went down very tamely in France in their last UCL game by a 4-1 scoreline, the very same as the very next game they played in the Cup versus Shaktar Donetsk. They have now lost 3-1 AND 4-1 to Donetsk just this month. They meet a Zagreb side that have at least won their last two games after going down 0-2 at home to Porto in the first group game. Kiev are short priced favourites at 1.5o to win the match with Zagreb as big as 8.5. Immediately it strikes me the away win price is very generous.  Kiev have lost 4 of the last 7 Champions League games they have played in front of their own fans,including qualifiers, and have lost their last 2 CL games. Zagreb on the other hand, whilst I shall not claim them to be the very best travellers, when ignoring the loss to Porto, won their previous four CL games and were not beaten on the road in three games in qualifying for this stage of the competition, Including winning the last two away. That 8.5 is certainly generous. I considered taking 2.7 for the Zagreb or draw, double chance with Paddy Power, but iI think this is worth a single point investment at heavy odds for the away win.

 Porto v PSG

Obviously, following the previous write up, these two go into this match with three points a piece after wins against the Dynamos in the group. Porto maybe having the bigger kudos for gaining their points on the road,whilst PSG did their work in Paris. Th French side have a brace of domestic wins since the last group game, and Porto have won one and drawn one. Nothing really stand out for me to want to bet in this match.Porto are slight favourites, mainly as they are playing at home I would imagine. I find it interesting that the average age of the PSG squad is some four years older than Porto; in this competition that could prove a key factor. I shan’t be betting on the game though

Champions League Group A Bet: Dinamo Zagreb 1 pt AWAY WIN @ 8.5

Champions League GROUP B

 Arsenal v Olympiakos

Olympiakos have won just once in the last seven champions League games they have played outside Greece. Arsenal on the other hand have not been beaten by a club outside England at home in the Champions league for some nine years and some 47 Highbury and Emirates games. Both Chelsea and Manchester United have handed defeats to Arsene Wenger’s sides in that time however. It would take some searching to find more solid European form than that. So does that make an Arsenal home win at 1.37 a realistic betting proposition? For me, No. I don’t know why. I would happily bet OVER 1.5 goals at that price, but when it come to a home win, I just simply an not bring myself to risk a point for a possible 37% return on investment. Backing the home side at 1.91 to be winning at both half and full time is somewhat more appealing given that in the last 39 home UCL games, Arsenal did just that in 22 of them. The Greek sides last five European losses on the road all went the way of losing at both half an full time and Arsenal have beaten them the last twice they have played in London. The Gunners are the masters at this type of match and can land the HT/FT bet for us

Shalke v Montpellier

Shalke went to Greece and beat Olympiakos in the first game, whilst Montpellier travelled to Arsenal to go down 2-1. This makes Shalke the rightful favourites pre-match but not ones I will run out and lay money on at odds of 1.65. Montpellier are already finding things tough in Ligue 1 this season,they have no real pedigree as a good travelling side in Europe and this should be a comfortable home win and second win for Shalke. I am not going to bet this price though and would prefer to leave the game alone from a betting perspective.

Champions League Group B Bet: Arsenal v Olympiakos HT/FT  1pt HOME/HOME @ 1.91

Champions League GROUP C

 Zenit v Milan

Do not discount Zenit as the smaller club in this match up. Of course, yes they are but at the same time, a quick look at relative, home and away champions League form leaves you in no doubt, that to win the game Milan will have to bring their best to the table  in Russia. Zenit have not lost in eight home games in the Champions League although recent domestic form has not been that solid. RubinKazan being once again the nemisis. Milan on the other hand have NOT won in six away Champions League fixtures, drawing four and losing the last two. Those defeats came at the hands of Arsenal and Barelona so some excuses may be tolerated but four consecutive draws prior to that, lead me to bet on the same outcome for Wednesdays fixture at 3.4 odds.

Anderlecht v Malaga

Malaga made mince meat of Zenit in the opening game with a 3-0 win in Spain. I think Zenit may have been maybe a tad off their game that day, and Malaga are still enjoying a full squad of players to choose from. I have alluded that we should make money on Malaga whilst we can in the past but caution may be best exercised in this game. Although they have to travel to Anderlecht for this, the Belgians do not have a great record at this level, when playing top teams. Malaga can very much be regarded as that despite the exodus of talent in the summer, for they occupy third place in La Liga with 14 points from a possible 18. Anderlecht are doing OK too with 19 points from nine games in the Pro League.Malagas strength comes in home games, once on their travels, quite a different story can be told. They have scored just twice in the last five games in all competitions on the road, and have scored more than once in a single game away from home just twice in the last fifteen. I think the game will be tighter than expected and on this occasion 2.3 for the Malaga win does not offer me value. Anderlecht have failed to score at home in all competition just twice in 33 matches, so we simply have to consider  that they will net, which leads me away from the unders bet at a low 1.8. A correct score of 1-1 is stand out best priced 6/1 at William Hill and that’s one bet I will have on the game. I shall also have a single point on the 1-0 scoreline at 9/1 with Bet365 in what has turned out to be a speculative investment game for Wednesday night.

 

Champions League Group C Bet: Zenit v Milan 1pt DRAW @ 3.4 – Anderlecht v Malaga, 1pt each on 1-1 (6/1) and 1-0 (9/1) scorelines

Champions League GROUP D

Manchester City v Borussia Dortmund

 This has to be the the game of the night and after losing the first game against Real Madrid two weeks ago Man City are almost in a must win situation given that a draw would be considered a good result for Borussia Dortmund. I am not confident in calling this match either way; a price looking like value might tempt me and 2.15 for the home win is a serious consideration. The one thing I think the game will contain will be goals, but at just 1.85 for the Over 2.5, my preference has to be for City to get the three points

Ajax v Real Madrid

Ajax are unbeaten in three games since losing to Borussia Dortmund in the last game, with a draw and two victories, whilst real Madrid have won all three of their matches since, scoring no fewer than fifteen goals in the process and conceding just once. Eight of those goals have come in a cup game against very tame opposition it has to be said. 1.50 for the away win will not drag me in and a watching brief is all I will afford this match. This will certainly heat up in the next round of matches should there be any unexpected results i this group of death tonight,and we could find some value next time round.

Champions League Group D Bet: Man City v Borussia Dortmund HOME WIN 1pt @ 2.15

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