The Half-Time Picture – Alternative Betting Methods for Finding an Edge

September 7, 2011

Here I take a look at a single market in the ever growing list of options of betting on football matches

The Half-Time market is becoming an ever more popular place for punters to bet. With the ever growing list of betting options per game including the in-running bets, the punter has to find something he can asses with some degree of accuracy and decide upon a single area of expertise, as opposed to trying to conquest every market. The half time market can offer this type of area as it often has to a degree a certain edge in pricing for the eagle eyed.

The prices for Half Time results differ only fractionally for each team, with slight variances in favour of the higher placed teams in each division. This is not necessarily reflected in teams performances, and this is somewhere we can find an edge in the market to our benefit. Those “Value” bets everyone wants.

There are many instances of these throughout the leagues, both in England, Europe and the wider world but i will start In the English premier League for a prime example.

Blackburn Rovers 2010/11 – Finished in 15th position in the table, although were part of the group of teams that could have feasibly been relegated on the final day of the season. Had we taken only the first 45 minutes of games only over the course of the season and we would have been looking at a very different picture with Blackburn actually sat as high as fourth place. That’s is above the likes of Chelsea and Liverpool who would be 5th and 6th respectively, whilst Spurs would have been languishing in 11th instead of their fifth finish and even more despairingly, Fulham would have been nowhere near their final position of 8th. they would have been down in 16th!

Half time has no bearing therefore on how final table could look, but it does give us a picture of how teams can capitulate from good positions in game, perhaps, in the case of Blackburn, not possessing the fullest of fitness to see out games, or perhaps mental confidence going into the final stages of games where most points are consistently lost.

It also offers us a good opportunity of finding a value bet. For instance,  with Blackburn as far down the table as they were all season, they would have been a better price than many above them to be winning at half time in games, which in fact they were. This would also provide the in-running punter with an opportunity to perhaps Lay Blackburn at rock bottom prices when they are leading between perhaps the 45-60 minute mark in games.

Look at this weekends fixture between the two clubs. Blackburn are priced way in excess of what they should be given the respective records of these two sides for the first 45 minutes of matches last season. Although closer inspection will show that Blackburn have not led at Half-Time at Craven Cottage on their last four visits.

It will take time to analyse and find these edges, but if we, the punters, want to find that edge that makes the difference between profit and loss, the time we put in will be rewarded. Punting on football is no smash and grab routine. It takes planning and considered thought, but there are enough opportunities if imagination is used, to find that angle. In coming weeks, I will attempt to highlight some of these opportunities, from not only the English League, but also some European and world games too.

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