Football: Correct Score Law of Averages Strategy

Here I will look at Correct Score averages through various European Leagues. These averages rarely fluctuate season to season. I aim to identify as and when it looks like a particular scoreline is out of sync with the general averages for the particular division and look to a short term strategy to capitalise as things level up.

Followers of the blog that have been with me from the start, and in particular following the football through last season may remember a couple of pieces I covered last year where the Npower Championship Division in England had a position after several weeks whereby there was a distinct lack of 1-1 scorelines. It was considerably below average for the division, and indeed any division, being in general, the most frequently completed scoreline. It was only a week or two after this, that there were two weekends were three 1-1 draws were scored from the 9 matches played on the Saturday, thus redressing the balance. 3 from 9 is a 33% strike rate and therefore a 2/1 chance. Now we know that 2/1 was not the “true odds”, but given the the average were well behind, it could be taken that there would be a higher probability of such an occurrence if the averages were to even out. On this basis, we were able to back 1-1′s at prices of 11/2 – 6/1 on what turned out to be 2/1 strike rates. Those brave enough to permutate the nine games would have managed in the region of 42/1 for doubles and 275/1 for trebles.

I will be reviewing as many leagues, high and low, throughout Europe over these early weeks to see if a similar opportunity can be uncovered once again and in particular for those scorelines that occur most frequently, such as the 1-1′s of the world.

I will give full statistical backing, historical facts and figures, and the choice to follow me is entirely yours. But rest assured, I will not be writing these thoughts for no reason. I can assure you that when I highlight an opportunity, it is an opportunity I will be following with my own cash.

Join me in the search of the correct score law of averages, if we don’t get rich, we will sleep and dream of percentage figures if nothing else.

One Response to Football: Correct Score Law of Averages Strategy

  1. Marc Owen-Banks on August 22, 2012 at 9:53 am

    AUSTRIAN BUNDESLIGA

    It hasn’t taken long to uncover one League that is way behind in the average for 1-1 scorelines already. With 5 games gone in the league,and a total of 25 matches played, the percentage of those 35 games that have ended in draws is just 4%. Even better, not a single 1-1 scoreline yet in a league in which we would expect a 13% return of this scoreline taking the last four seasons into account.

    What this means is, with the next round of five games complete, 30 games would have taken place and in normal circumstances, we could have expected 4 of those matches to have ended with the 1-1 scoreline. Now, I’m not suggesting that all four of those will come in the next round of games, indeed, it could take weeks for the average to even out to an area that would look more “normal”!

    Again to highlight the previous years figures

    2009/10 10%
    2010/11 13.33%
    2011/12 15%

    Even if we were to expect it to return to the lowest level over the last three years, after 30 games, we would have expected to have three results.

    I’m sure the AUSTRIAN BUNDESLIGA will return to something like 10% on 1-1′s. With just ten teams in the league, and 5 matches in a round, the 1-1 is available this weekend (25th/26th August) in all games at odds above 6/1 in four of the five matches. I’m not going to be selective, I’m going to back every game to finish 1-1. If one comes up this weekend then profit will be returned and I will leave this division alone. If we draw a blank, a full cover the following week will still be very much worth looking at but we’ll see how this weekend goes first.

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